I started working with Navision in 1990 and since then I've done almost everything in this industry.
In 1995 I started the Dynamics User Group, formerly Navision Online User Group and Microsoft Business Solutions User Group. Here on my blog I write mostly about the Dynamics Community, my experiences with Microsoft and especially the Dynamics NAV and Navision projects I'm working on, but also how it is to work as a self-employed Navision freelancer, Navision contractor or whatever you call it.
A friend on Facebook asked this question yesterday.
My initial answer was that I don't think that we'll see any big changes in the market with the products we have now. I think that both Dynamics NAV 2009 and Dynamics AX 2009 a really great products. Great usability and functionality.
Microsoft's semi-enterprise product Microsoft Dynamics AX is a great product. But compared to the SAP and Oracle Financials to really make a difference. In many ways it's "just another product".
Microsoft Dynamics NAV 2009 is also a really unique product. It's user interface is giving the users a great experience and is allowing it's users to customize their own views to make it even easier for them to use. But what hurts Dynamics NAV 2009 is that performance is not what you could expect from such a great product. If you have much more than a few hundred users, then you cannot use the program without having to do extensive performance optimizations of the code. And if you want to support more users, then it is a huge task that only very experienced SQL specialists can do.
I believe in Dynamics NAV, because of its unique usability, easy implementations and it's very simple development platform. What needs to go away is its support for its own database, the native Navision database. As good as this database has been in the past, especially when it comes to supporting smaller installations, as bad it is when it comes to add scalability and performance.
So I really cross my fingers for what Microsoft is planning for Dynamics NAV 2011 (the next big version after NAV 2009). I think if Microsoft finally will kick out the native NAV database and only support Microsoft SQL Server, then the solution can really be optimized, so that NAV will be able to both cover the SMB and the Enterprise markets. But Microsoft needs to take it serious. It's not enough that they skip the native database. They also need to optimize the code. Not just leave it to their partners.
But if they do, then I think that they really will have a product that will both be able to compete the normal SMB markets and the Enterprise markets, and especially in the Enterprise market will make a difference, with it's almost extreme ease of use.